A new modelling study published today in the BMJ (British Medical Journal) suggests there will be 25 million people living with Parkinson’s worldwide by 2050, more than doubling the current global prevalence of Parkinson’s.

Researchers from Capital Medical University in Beijing, China, conducted this latest modelling study using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to predict the prevalence of Parkinson’s in 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050.

The findings suggest the number of people living with the condition in 2050 will be 25.2 million, a 112% increase compared to 2021.

The study also looked at the the factors driving changes in Parkinson’s cases, concluding this sharp rise will largely be due to an ageing population.

Which countries will have the most Parkinson’s cases?

Researchers said Parkinson’s will become more common across the world, but countries with poorer socioeconomic status, as well as those with the largest ageing populations, will see the biggest increase in cases. The study also noted that risk factors included environmental agents (like air pollution and pesticides), climate change, unhealthy lifestyle, metabolic diseases, and dietary factors.

East Asia will see the highest number of cases – 10.9 million – with China and Japan most affected, whereas the largest increase in cases will be in western Sub-Saharan Africa, where people are generally living longer than before.

In Europe, cases are expected to rise by 50% in Western Europe, and by 28% in Central and Eastern Europe.

The European countries with the highest prevalence rates won’t differ much to the most-affected countries now – Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK – but the numbers of cases will of course see a sharp rise, according to the modelling study.

Germany, for instance, is expected to have 574,000 cases in 2050 (up from 414,000 in the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study), whereas the UK is expected to have 307,000 cases (vs. 199,000), and France and Spain will both top 350,000 Parkinson’s cases (up from 241,000 and 200,000, respectively).

One European anomaly was Italy: the modelling study predicts the number of Parkinson’s cases will actually fall to 177,000 in 2050, down from 190,000 in 2021.

What does this study mean?

We already know that Parkinson’s is the fastest-growing neurological condition in the world, and similar predictions about prevalence numbers have been around for a while, but this study is an important reminder that Parkinson’s is growing at an alarming rate, and will also go on to affect some countries’ healthcare systems much more than others.

“By 2050 Parkinson’s disease will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, care givers, communities, and society,” the study authors concluded, adding a suggestion that this study “could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.”

This is something our Strategic Director, Amelia Hursey, agrees with. Speaking to EuroNews, Amelia said:

“It just shows that it absolutely needs to be addressed now, because there is no way that any of the global health services can cope with that level of demand from one specific condition.”

Parkinson’s UK Director of Research, David Dexter, added:

“This very welcome study reminds us that Parkinson’s is growing quickly across the world. Until we find a cure, it’s vital that people with Parkinson’s, regardless of their location, socioeconomic group or race, have access to research opportunities, good quality care and support that enables them to live well with the condition.”

Find out more key Parkinson’s statistics.